بانک‌های تخصصی و رشد بخش‌های اقتصادی مرتبط در ایران : بررسی فرضیه همگرایی (رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی در داده‌های تابلویی)

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در این مطالعه به بررسی اثر مداخله اعتباری دولت در نظام بانکی بر رشد بخش‌های اقتصادی و همگرایی آن در اقتصاد ایران طی دوره 1396-1376پرداخته شد. بدین منظور از الگوی Panel ARDL و تابع همگرایی بتا استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که مداخله اعتباری دولت در نظام بانکی (از طریق متغیرهای تسهیلات پرداختی بانک‌های تخصصی به بخش متناظر خود، سهم هر یک از بانک‌های تخصصی از کل سیستم بانکی و مالکیت دولتی بانک‌ها) از تأثیر معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی و همگرایی ارزش افزوده هر یک از بخش‌های اقتصادی برخوردار می‌باشد. یافته‌های برآورد تابع همگرایی بتا نشان داد که ضریب همگرایی بتا بدون در نظر گرفتن اثر مداخله اعتباری دولت برابر با 31/0- و با ملحوظ نمودن آن برابر با 67/0- بوده که بیانگر همگرایی بتای ارزش افزوده بین بخش‌های اقتصادی می‌باشد. سرعت همگرایی نیز از 017/0 در حالت بدون مداخله اعتباری دولت به 052/0 در حالت با مداخله اعتباری دولت افزایش یافته است.تخصصی شدن بانک‌ها با هدف رشد اقتصادی در بخش‌های مختلف می‌تواند منجر به ایجاد و افزایش سرعت همگرایی در بخش‌های اقتصاد ایران گردد. لذا پیشنهاد شد تسهیلات اعطایی به بخش‌های اقتصادی، متناسب با سهم آن‌ها از تولید ناخالص داخلی، اشتغال و بویژه بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید باشد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Specialized Banks and the Growth of Related Economic Sectors in Iran: Investigation of the convergence hypothesis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Fakhrian 1
  • Alireza DaghighiAsli 2
  • Marjan Damankeshideh 2
1 d
2 A
چکیده [English]

                      In this study, the effect of government credit intervention in the banking system on the growth of economic sectors and its convergence in the Iran economy during the period 1998-2018 was investigated. For this purpose, the ARDL Panel model and the beta convergence function were used. The results showed that government credit intervention in the banking system (through the variables of payment facilities of specialized banks to their respective sector,the share of each specialized bank in the total banking system and state ownership of banks) had a significant effect on economic growth and value-added convergence.Findings of the beta convergence function estimate showed that the beta convergence coefficient without considering the effect of government credit intervention was -0.31 and considering it was -0.67,which indicates the value-added beta convergence between economic sectors.Convergence rate has also increased from 0.017in the case without government credit intervention to0.052in the case of government credit intervention.The specialization of banks with the aim of economic growth in various sectors can lead to the creation and increase of convergence rate in Iran's economy sectors.Therefore,it was suggested that the facilities granted to the economic sectors be proportional to their share of GDP,employment and especially the total productivity of production factors.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • specialized banks
  • Credit intervention
  • economic sectors
  • Beta convergence
  • Panel ARDL Model. JEL Classification: G00
  • G21
  • O47
  • G18
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