اثر بی‌ثباتی اقتصاد کلان بر توسعه اجتماعی در ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار اقتصاد دانشگاه بجنورد

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه بجنورد

چکیده

توسعه اجتماعی فرایندی از تغییرات است که منجر به بهبود در به­زیستن انسان می­شود. به­زیستن انسان به معنی دسترسی به آموزش بهتر، سلامت بهتر و منابع مورد نیاز برای ضروریات زندگی است. از طرف دیگر، موقعیت وضعیت اقتصاد کلان هر کشور عامل مؤثری بر این مقوله است. بنابراین، در مقاله حاضر اثر بی­ثباتی اقتصاد کلان بر توسعه اجتماعی در ایران در بازه زمانی ۱۳52-۱۳۹6 آزمون گردید. برای سنجش توسعه اجتماعی از دو شاخص توسعه انسانی و نرخ بقاء کودکان زیر 5 سال و برای سنجش شاخص بی­ثباتی اقتصاد کلان، از ترکیب چهار متغیر تلاطم تولید ناخالص داخلی، تلاطم رابطه مبادله و تلاطم سرمایه­گذاری و تلاطم مخارج مصرفی خصوصی استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می­دهد که در بلندمدت، بی­ثباتی اقتصاد کلان بر روی شاخص توسعه انسانی و نرخ بقاء کودکان زیر 5 سال، اثر منفی و معنی­دار دارد که این امر مبین اثر منفی بی­ثباتی اقتصاد کلان بر روی توسعه اجتماعی است. در عین حال، نتایح حاکی از آن است که در کوتاه­مدت رابطه معنی­داری بین متغیرهای مورد نظر و توسعه اجتماعی وجود ندارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Macroeconomic Instability on Social Development in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • majid dashtban farooji 1
  • abdollah khoshnoodi 1
  • masoud nikooghadam 2
1 Assistant professor of economics, University of Bojnord, Iran.
2 Assistant professor of economics, University of Bojnord, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Social development is a process of changes that leads to improvement in human well-being. Human well-being means access to better education, better health, and the resources required for basic human needs. On the other hand, the macroeconomic condition of each country is an effective factor in this issue. Therefore, in this paper, we examined the effect of macroeconomic instability on social development in Iran between 1352 through 1396. To measure the social development, we used two variables of human development index and under-five child survival rate and to measure macroeconomic instability, we combined four variables, the GDP volatility, the terms of trade volatility, the investment volatility and the private consumption expenditure volatility. The results showed that macroeconomic instability has a negative and significant effect on the human development index and the under-five survival rate in the long run, which reflects the negative effects of macroeconomic instability on social development. Also, in the short run, there is no significant relationship between the relevant variables and social development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Social Development
  • Macroeconomic Instability
  • Social Infrastructure
  • Human Development
  • Child Survival Rate. JEL Classification: A13
  • F41
  • C23
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