توسعه مالی، رانت منابع طبیعی و سرمایه فیزیکی در ایران: نفرین یا موهبت منابع؟

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار اقتصاد، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی

2 دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

نفرین یا موهبت منابع؟ این مسأله‏ بیش از نیم قرن، سهم قابل توجهی از مباحث تئوریک و مطالعات کاربردی در کشورهای غنی از منابع را به خود اختصاص داده است. در واقع باید دانست که آیا بهره‏مندی از رانت منابع می‏تواند مشوق انباشت سرمایه فیزیکی باشد و آیا توسعه مالی می­تواند منجربه تحقق آن شود؟ این مقاله، با استفاده از تکنیک ARDL غلتان به آزمون اثر شاخص چندبُعدی و هفت شاخص تک‏بُعدی توسعه مالی بر نحوه اثرگذاری رانت منابع طبیعی بر سرمایه فیزیکی در ایران طی سال‏های 2014-1970 می‏پردازد. نتایج گویای آن است که با افزایش شاخص چندبُعدی و اکثر شاخص‏های تک‏بُعدی توسعه مالی، تأثیر رانت منابع بر سرمایه فیزیکی در کوتاه­مدت و در بلندمدت بهبود پیدا کرده است. لذا توسعه مالی باعث بالا رفتن ظرفیت جذب این منابع در اقتصاد شده و آسیب­پذیری اقتصاد ایران از نوسانات فروش منابع طبیعی را کاهش داده است. این نتایج مؤید لزوم تقویت سیستم مالی به منظور تبدیل سرمایه طبیعی به سرمایه­ فیزیکی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Financial Development, Natural Resources Rent and Physical Capital in Iran: The Curse or Blessing of Resources?

نویسندگان [English]

  • m a 1
  • f a 2
1 a
2 a
چکیده [English]

Resources Curse or blessing? This is a problem that has been a significant contribution to theoretical discussions and applied studies in natural resource-rich countries for over half a century. In fact, it is important to know that can resources rents stimulate physical capital accumulation and whether financial development can lead to it?  In this article we have investigated the effect of multi-dimensional and seven individual indices of financial development on how resources rents affect physical capital in Iran during 1970–2014, using ARDL Rolling model. The results show that with the increase of the multi-dimensional index and most of the individual indices of financial development, the effect of resources rents on physical capital accumulation has improved in both short- and long-run. In fact, financial development has increased the absorption capacity of these resources in the economy and reduced the vulnerability of the Iranian economy to fluctuations in natural resource sales. These results confirm the need to strengthen the financial system to transform natural capital to physical capital.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Natural Resource Rent
  • Financial Development
  • Physical Capital
  • ARDL model
  • Rolling Regression JEL Classification: O13
  • G20
  • E22
  • C22
 
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