نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 هیئت علمی اقتصاد پژوهشگاه
2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آیتاللّه بروجردی، بروجرد، لرستان، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Given two fundamental problems of the Iranian economy in recent decades, namely structural budget deficits and low economic growth, this study investigates the nonlinear effect of the size of the government budget deficit (government budget deficit as a percentage of GDP) on Iran's economic growth using the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model. The findings of this study show that the size of the budget deficit, in a two-regime structure with a threshold value of 4.28%, has affected Iran's economic growth during the period 1973-2021. In such a way that in the first regime (years with a budget deficit size of less than 4.28%), the deficit size had a positive effect on economic growth and in the second regime (years with a budget deficit size greater than 4.28%), the deficit size had a negative effect on economic growth. Therefore, in line with Barrow's (1990) theory, the findings showed that there was an inverse U-shaped relationship between the budget deficit size and economic growth in Iran. Also, the findings showed that investment growth and export growth had a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while the positive effect of population growth on Iran's economic growth was not statistically significant.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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