نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
One of the challenges of the Iranian economy in recent decades has been macroeconomic instability, which can be attributed to factors such as inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, housing price increases and budget deficits. This study examines the response of Iran’s gold market to macroeconomic instability over 2017–2023. Macroeconomic instability is proxied by a composite monthly index constructed from volatility in inflation, the free-market exchange rate, housing prices, and the Tehran Stock Exchange index. After normalizing the volatility components, the empirical relationship is estimated using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The results indicate a statistically significant negative association between the macroeconomic instability index and the domestic gold price in the estimated specification, while housing-price growth, stock-market growth, and exchange-rate growth are positively associated with the gold price. The error-correction coefficient is negative and significant, showing that deviations from the long-run path are corrected gradually. Because the negative coefficient of the instability index is not fully consistent with the conventional safe-haven view of gold, the discussion interprets the finding cautiously in light of Iran-specific asset substitution, market restrictions, and the composition of the instability index during the sample period.
کلیدواژهها English