This study examines the effects of uncertainty in the determinants of urban poverty across Iranian provinces, focusing on the agricultural sector’s role from 2014 to 2023. Using a fuzzy regression model, the intensity of various factors’ influence on urban poverty was evaluated through fuzzy centers and right/left spreads. Results from fuzzy right spreads, at a 0.9 membership degree, revealed that gross domestic product (GDP) significantly reduced urban poverty in provinces like Sistan and Baluchestan, West Azerbaijan, and Qom. The agricultural sector played a dual role: in provinces such as Qazvin and Golestan, higher agricultural value added (coefficients of 0.11 and 0.06, respectively) supported household income growth and urban population stability. However, this also intensified rural-to-urban migration, straining infrastructure and labor markets. Additionally, inflationary volatility, high unemployment, and low female economic participation were identified as major threats to urban welfare, exacerbating poverty under unstable economic conditions. Expanding basic rural services, particularly through establishing comprehensive rural health centers, can mitigate economic migration to cities and reduce its adverse impacts on urban areas, fostering more balanced socio-economic development.