تاثیرسرریز بین المللی سیاست های پولی بر وام دهی بانک ها در ایران: رویکرد NARDL

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the international spillover of US monetary policies on bank lending in Iran from 1994-2019. In this study, the effects of American policies before and after the 2007-2008 financial crisis are analyzed separately. For this purpose, the autoregression model with Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) has been used. Based on the estimated results, an increase in negative US monetary policy shocks in the long run will reduce the lending rate in Iran, and in each period, 96% of the imbalances will be corrected and tend towards the long-run value. Based on the estimation results of the model, the positive shocks of the American monetary policy have not been significant. Also, other variables in the model, except for the variable of bank loans to total assets, are significant at the five percent level. Based on the results obtained and the influence of the lending rate in Iran on the monetary policies of the United States, it is recommended that the policymakers make the internal economic conditions more stable than the external conditions and secure the economy against external shocks with targeted policies.