بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران

بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران

تاثیرسرریز بین المللی سیاست های پولی بر وام دهی بانک ها در ایران: رویکرد NARDL

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
2 استاد گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
چکیده
هدف مطالعه حاضر، بررسی تاثیر سرریز بین‌المللی سیاست‌های پولی ایالات متحده بر وام‌دهی بانک‌ها، در ایران طی دوره زمانی 2019-1994 است. در این مطالعه اثرات سیاست‌های پولی آمریکا قبل و بعد از بحران مالی 2008-2007 به تفکیک مورد بررسی قرار می‌گیرد. برای این منظور از مدل خود رگرسیون با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی (NARDL) استفاده شده است. بر اساس نتایج برآورد شده، افزایش در شوکهای منفی سیاست پولی آمریکا در بلندمدت، نرخ وام دهی در ایران را کاهش خواهد داد و در هر دوره، 96 درصد از عدم تعادل‌ها اصلاح شده و به سمت مقدار بلندمدت میل می‌کند. بر اساس نتایج تخمین مدل، شوک‌های مثبت سیاست پولی آمریکا معنادار نبوده است. همچنین سایر متغیرهای مدل به استثنای متغیر وام‌های بانکی به کل دارایی‌ها در سطح پنج درصد معنادار می-باشند. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده و تاثیرپذیری نرخ وام دهی در کشور ایران از سیاستهای پولی ایالات متحده، توصیه می‌شود سیاستگذاران با سیاست‌گذاری‌های هدفمند، وابستگی اقتصاد داخلی را نسبت به شرایط بیرونی کمتر کرده و اقتصاد را نسبت به شوک‌های خارجی ایمن کنند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

The Impact of International Monetary Policy Spillovers on Bank Lending in Iran: NARDL Approach

نویسندگان English

Nosrat Bahraini 1
b s 2
Hossein Asgharpour 2
1 PhD in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran
2 Professor of the Department of Economic Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده English

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the international spillover of US monetary policies on bank lending in Iran from 1994-2019. In this study, the effects of American policies before and after the 2007-2008 financial crisis are analyzed separately. For this purpose, the autoregression model with Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) has been used. Based on the estimated results, an increase in negative US monetary policy shocks in the long run will reduce the lending rate in Iran, and in each period, 96% of the imbalances will be corrected and tend towards the long-run value. Based on the estimation results of the model, the positive shocks of the American monetary policy have not been significant. Also, other variables in the model, except for the variable of bank loans to total assets, are significant at the five percent level. Based on the results obtained and the influence of the lending rate in Iran on the monetary policies of the United States, it is recommended that the policymakers make the internal economic conditions more stable than the external conditions and secure the economy against external shocks with targeted policies.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Monetary Policies
Iran
International Spillover
Bank Lending
Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL)
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  • تاریخ دریافت 12 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 04 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 22 مرداد 1404