اثرگذاری غیرخطی کسری بودجه بر رشد اقتصادی ایران

منتظری, جلال; زاهد غروی, مهدی

doi:10.30465/ce.2025.48191.1953

اثرگذاری غیرخطی کسری بودجه بر رشد اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ استادیار اقتصاد، پژوهشکده اقتصاد، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی ، تهران، ایران

² استادیار اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آیت‌الله بروجردی، ایران، بروجرد، لرستان، ایران

10.30465/ce.2025.48191.1953

چکیده

با توجه به دو مشکل اساسی اقتصاد ایران طی دهه‌های اخیر یعنی کسری‌های بودجه ساختاری و رشد اقتصادی پایین، مطالعه حاضر تلاش کرده تا با استفاده از مدل خود رگرسیونی آستانه‌ای (TAR) اثرگذاری غیرخطی اندازه کسری بودجه دولت (کسری بودجه دولت به صورت درصدی از تولید ناخالص داخلی) بر رشد اقتصادی ایران را مورد بررسی قرار دهد. یافته‌های این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که اندازه کسری بودجه در قالب یک ساختار دو رژیمی با مقدار آستانه‌ای 28/4 درصد بر رشد اقتصادی ایران طی دوره 1400-1352 اثر گذاشته است. به نحوی که اندازه کسری بودجه در رژیم یک (سال‌هایی با اندازه کسری بودجه کوچک‌تر از 28/4 درصد) اثر مثبت و در رژیم دوم (سال‌هایی با اندازه کسری بودجه بزرگ‌تر از 28/4 درصد) اثر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی داشته است. بنابراین و همگام با نظریه بارو (1990)، یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که بین اندازه کسری بودجه و رشد اقتصادی در ایران یک رابطه به شکل U معکوس وجود داشته است. همچنین، یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که رشد سرمایه‌گذاری و رشد صادرات اثر مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی داشته‌اند، در حالی که اثر مثبت نرخ رشد جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی به لحاظ آماری معنادار نبوده است.
طبقهبندی JEL:
E62، H62، O40.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

بودجه و برنامه ریزی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Nonlinear Effect of Budget Deficit on Iran's Economic Growth

نویسندگان [English]

j m ¹
Mehdi zahed gharavi ²

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies, Tehran, Iran

² Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran

چکیده [English]

Given two fundamental problems of the Iranian economy in recent decades, namely structural budget deficits and low economic growth, this study investigates the nonlinear effect of the size of the government budget deficit (government budget deficit as a percentage of GDP) on Iran's economic growth using the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model. The findings of this study show that the size of the budget deficit, in a two-regime structure with a threshold value of 4.28%, has affected Iran's economic growth during the period 1973-2021. In such a way that in the first regime (years with a budget deficit size of less than 4.28%), the deficit size had a positive effect on economic growth and in the second regime (years with a budget deficit size greater than 4.28%), the deficit size had a negative effect on economic growth. Therefore, in line with Barrow's (1990) theory, the findings showed that there was an inverse U-shaped relationship between the budget deficit size and economic growth in Iran. Also, the findings showed that investment growth and export growth had a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while the positive effect of population growth on Iran's economic growth was not statistically significant.
JEL Classification: E62, H62, O40.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Budget Deficit
Government
Economic Growth
Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) Model
Iran

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