Document Type : Scientific-research
Authors
1
PhD student in Economics, Department of Economics, International Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran
2
Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran.
3
Associate professor of Economics.Department of Economics.Faculty of Literature and Humanities.Islamic azad University.Kerman.Iran
10.30465/ce.2024.49706.1977
Abstract
Due to the need to understand how oil income uncertainty affects macroeconomic variables, in this study, the asymmetric effect of oil export on GDP, unemployment and income distribution in Iran was investigated. For this purpose, required data were collected from central bank during 1990-2022 and analyzed with generalized moments model (GMM). Results showed that oil export has an asymmetric effect on GDP, unemployment rate and Gini coefficient. Also, the positive momentum of oil exports has strong positive significant effect on GDP, weak positive significant effect on unemployment rate, and strong positive significant effect on the Gini coefficient. Since the results of the research showed that the positive impulse of oil export has a significant positive effect on the unemployment rate, it is suggested to the economic policy makers to prevent its adverse effects on employment with a coherent program and with supportive packages, reduce the welfare of the newly unemployed. Finally, since the positive momentum of oil exports on the one hand has a significant positive effect on the gross domestic product and on the other hand it increases income inequality, "growth with redistribution" and "growth with greater equality" should be on the agenda of the country's planners.
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