The effect of Dutch disease on Iran industrialization An approach of the Rybczynski's theorem(1978-2018)

Document Type : Scientific-research

Authors

1 department of Economic, Faculty of humanities, ilam university, ilam, iran.

2 department of Economic, Faculty of Humanities, Ilam University, ilam. iran

10.30465/ce.2024.41456.1789

Abstract

The income from the sale of natural resources, especially oil, has a significant contribution to the GDP in Iran. facing oil income fluctuations will have effects on various economic sectors. Therefore, understanding the economic impact of these fluctuations in oil income on the growth of economic sectors including industry in Iran is of particular importance for economic policy making. Accordingly, the effect of volatility in oil income on the growth of the industrial sector during the time period of 1976-2018 has been investigated using SVAR model. The results showed that the creation of a positive momentum equal to one standard deviation in the ratio of oil income to GDP in the short term has a negative impact on industrial production and the growth of the industrial sector. However, in the long term gradually causes a decrease in the growth of the industrial sector and industrial exports. Also, the results of the analysis of variance show an effective relationship between the ratio of oil income to GDP and the growth of the industrial sector in Iran.

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History

  • Receive Date: 28 May 2022
  • Revise Date: 04 October 2022
  • Accept Date: 07 October 2022

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