The Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic on Sectors of Iranian Economy

Document Type : Scientific-research

Authors

1 PhD in Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University

2 Associate Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University

3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University

4 Assistant Professor of Economics, Kharazmi University

Abstract

During the coronavirus outbreak, Iranian government imposed social distancing and lockdown measures to reduce the number of infections. These policies caused economic activities disruption and the services are the most impacted, due to their need for human interactions. In this study, the economic growth modeling is used to investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on total output, considering the effect of the sanctions. Also, the impact of coronavirus on the service sector is compared with other sectors. The study period is spring 2005 to winter 2021. The empirical results from the ARDL estimates shows the negative impact of coronavirus pandemic on gross domestic product. Furthermore, the estimation results revealed significant negative effect of COVID-19 outbreak on service sector, but the impacts on agriculture and industry sectors are not statistically meaningful.

Keywords


طاهرپور، جواد. (1399). تبعات شیوع ویروس کرونا بر اقتصاد ایران و راهکارهای مقابله با آن (تولید و بیکاری)، طرح تحقیقاتی انجام شده در دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی.
طاهرپور، جواد، میرزائی، حجت‌الله، خداپرست، یونس و رضایی، صادق (1399)، اثرات شیوع ویروس کرونا بر بودجه دولت در سال 1399، مجله بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران، 7(2)، 181-221.
محمدی، تیمور. (1390). خطای متداول در کاربرد مدل های سری زمانی: کاربرد نادرست مدل ARDL (مدل خودرگرسیونی و توزیع با وقفه)، پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران, 16(47)، 163-183.‎
Barro, R. J., & Sala-I-Martin, X. (1995). Economic Growth. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Barro, R. J., Ursúa, J. F., & Weng, J. (2020). The coronavirus and the great influenza pandemic: Lessons from the “spanish flu” for the coronavirus’s potential effects on mortality and economic activity (No. w26866). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Bell, C., & Lewis, M. (2005). Economic Implications of Epidemics Old and New. Available at SSRN 997387.
Bianchi, M., Borsetti, A., Ciccozzi, M., and Pascarella, S. (2021). SARS-Cov-2 ORF3a: mutability and function. Int. J. Biol. Macromol. 170, 820–826
Binder, C. (2020). Coronavirus fears and macroeconomic expectations. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1-27.
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2001). The effect of health on economic growth: theory and evidence (No. w8587). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Ceylan, R. F., Ozkan, B., & Mulazimogullari, E. (2020). Historical evidence for economic effects
Enders, Walter (2003), Applied Econometric Time Series, Second Edition, Wiley
Fan, E. X. (2003). SARS: economic impacts and implications.
Haacker, M. (2002). The economic consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa (Vol. 2). International Monetary Fund.
Hanna, D., & Huang, Y. (2004). The impact of SARS on Asian economies. Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 102-112.
Hansen, L., & Sargent, T. J. (2001). Robust control and model uncertainty. American Economic Review, 91(2), 60-66.
Hirshleifer, J. (1987). Economic behaviour in adversity. University of Chicago Press.
IMF (2020). World Economic Outlook Database. April 2020.
Jonung, L., & Roeger, W. (2006). The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe-A model-based assessment. Available at SSRN 920851.
Jordà, Ò., Singh, S. R., & Taylor, A. M. (2020). Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics (No. w26934). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Joseph Stiglitz. (2021).” Lessons from COVID-19 and Trump for Theory and Policy (Paper).” Journal of Policy modeling.
Keogh-Brown, M. R., & Smith, R. D. (2008). The economic impact of SARS: how does the reality match the predictions?. Health policy, 88(1), 110-120.
Kohlscheen, E., Mojon, B., & Rees, D. (2020). The macroeconomic spillover effects of the pandemic on the global economy. Available at SSRN 3569554.
Lee, G., & Warner, M. (2007). The political economy of the SARS epidemic: the impact on human resources in East Asia. Routledge.
Lee, J. W., & McKibbin, W. J. (2003). The impact of SARS. In China: New Engine of World Growth. Asia Pacific Press.
Lee, J. W., & McKibbin, W. J. (2004). chapter 2 of Learning from SARS: Preparing for the Next Disease Outbreak: edited by Oberholtzer, K., Sivitz, L., Mack, A., Lemon, S., Mahmoud, A., & Knobler, S. (Eds.). Workshop Summary. National Academies Press.
Lee, J. W., & McKibbin, W. J. (2004). Globalization and disease: The case of SARS. Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 113-131.
Lutkepohl H . (2005), New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Springer
McKibbin, W. J., & Fernando, R. (2020). The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios.
McNeill, W. H., & McNeill, W. (1998). Plagues and peoples. Anchor
Ozili, P. K., & Arun, T. (2020). Spillover of COVID-19: impact on the Global Economy. Available at SSRN 3562570.
Pesaran, M.Hashem and Shin, Smith (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 16, pp. 289-326
Romer, D. (1995). Advanced Macroeconomics. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Romer, P. M. (1989). Human capital and growth: theory and evidence (No. w3173). National Bureau of Economic Research
Schultz, T. W. (1964). Changing relevance of agricultural economics. Journal of Farm Economics, 46(5), 1004-1014.
Seck, P. A., Encarnacion, J. O., Tinonin, C., & Duerto-Valero, S. (2021). Gendered Impacts of COVID-19 in Asia and the Pacific: Early Evidence on Deepening Socioeconomic Inequalities in Paid and Unpaid Work. Feminist Economics, 27(1-2), 117-132.
Siu, A., & Wong, Y. R. (2004). Economic impact of SARS: the case of Hong Kong. Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 62-83.
Yang, H. Y., & Chen, K. H. (2009). A general equilibrium analysis of the economic impact of a tourism crisis: A case study of the SARS epidemic in Taiwan. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 1(1), 37-60.
Volume 8, Issue 2
Autumn and Winter 2022
January 2022
Pages 159-187
  • Receive Date: 03 March 2021
  • Revise Date: 24 May 2021
  • Accept Date: 08 July 2021