Investigating the Effect of Exchange Rate Positive Shock on Employment in Housing Sector (Case Study: Mashhad City)

Document Type : Scientific-research

Authors

1 Assistant professor, National Institute for Population Research (NIPR),

2 Economics Researcher

Abstract

Micro-national analysis suffers from aggregation problem due ignoring sectoral-regional interactions. housing sector plays a crucial role in economy and specially in employment of Iran’s metropolises. Exchange rate shocks can affect housing sector and through this channel, can have an effect on the employment in this sector. Hence, exchange rate shocks can be considered as the obstacles to the fulfilment of urban and economic goals. Because of above-mentioned reasons, this essay investigated the effect of exchange rate shocks on the employment in housing sector of Mashhad city. The authors have substituted Factor-Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) for Vector Auto Regression (VAR). FAVAR is suggested for solving the limited information problem in VAR models and more variables can be used in these models. Our results are based on quarterly data during 1991- 2018 period for housing sector, industry and macroeconomics variables. The impulse-response figures indicate that exchange rate shock has led to inflation, stagnation, an instantaneous increase in the unemployment, and an increase in the share of housing sector’s employment of Mashhad city after some periods.
 

Keywords


انصاری‌نسب، مسلم و محمدی، زهرا (۱۳۹۸)، «بررسی رفتار غیرخطی نرخ ارز در ایران: شواهدی از الگوی مارکوف سوئیچینگ»، دو فصلنامه بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران (اقتصاد تطبیقی سابق)،‌ سال ششم، شماره اول، ۴۹-۲۹.
امامی، کریم و ملکی، الهه (۱۳۹۳)، «بررسی اثر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر اشتغال در ایران»، فصلنامه علوم اقتصادی، سال هشتم، شماره ۲۶، ۹۵-۱۱۲.
سعیدی،‌ پرویز و امیری، عبداله (۱۳۸۷)، «بررسی رابطه تورم و قیمت سهام صنایع موجود در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران»،‌ فصلنامه مدیریت، سال پنجم، شماره ۱۲، ۷۴- ۶۳. 
صمصامی، حسن و اردیزی، حسن (۱۳۹۹)، «عوامل مؤثر بر تغییرات سهم اشتغال بین دو بخش خدمات و صنعت- معدن»، دوفصلنامه بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران (اقتصاد تطبیقی سابق)،‌ سال هفتم، شماره اول، ۱۶۲-۱۳۵.
فرزام، وحید، طالقانی، فاطمه و خیل‌کردی، ربابه (۱۳۹۵)، «تأثیر جهش‌های پولی نرخ ارز بر اشتغال بخش‌های کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات در ایران»، پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، شماره ۶۷، ۱۱۲-۸۳.
کاغذیان، سهیلا، نقدی، یزدان و پاشائی، حسین (۱۳۹۴)، «بررسی تأثیر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر سرمایه‌گذاری در ایران»، فصلنامه علمی- پژوهشی راهبرد اقتصادی، سال سوم، شماره ۱۲، ۱۹۶- ۱۸۲.
نادمی، یونس و صداقت کالمرزی، هانیه (۱۳۹۷)، «بررسی اثر تکانه‌های قیمتی نفت و تحریم‌های اقتصادی بر رژیم‌های بیکاری در ایران با استفاده از رهیافت مارکوف سوئیچینگ»، پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران، دوره ۷، شماره ۲۶، ۱۵۶- ۱۳۱.
هادیان، ابراهیم و رضایی سخا، زینب (۱۳۸۸)، «بررسی تاثیر تکانههای اقتصادی بر نرخ بیکاری در ایران»، اقتصاد مقداری، سال ۶، شماره ۱، ۵۰-۲۷.
Jack, J. K. A., Okyere, F., Amoah, E. K. S., (2019), “Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility On Real Estate Prices In Developing Economies, A Case Of Ghana”, Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, vol. 6, no. 11: 268-287.
Bakhshi, Z., Ebrahimi, M., (2006), “The effect of real exchange rate on unemployment”, Marketing and Research, vol. 3: 4-13.
Bernanke, B., Boivin, J., Eliasz, P., (2005), " Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-augmented Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach", The Quarterly Journal of Economics. vol. 120, no. 1: 387-422.
Bover, O. and Jimeno, J. F. (2007), “House prices and employment reallocation: international evidence”. IZA DP No. 3129.
Branson, W. H., Love J. P., (1987), “The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in US Manufacturing: State and Regional Results”, NBER Working Paper 2435 November.
Branson, W. H., Love J. P., (1988), “U.S. Manufacturing and the Real Exchange Rate”, NBER Chapters, in: Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Trade and Industry, 241-276.
Campbell, O. A., (2010), “Foreign exchange market and monetary management in Nigeria”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, vol. 1, no. 2:102-106.
Chang, S. C., (2011), “The interrelationship between exchange-rate uncertainty and unemployment for South Korea and Taiwan: Evidence from a vector autoregressive approach”, International Economics, vol. 125, 65–82.
Diala A. O., Kalu I. U., Igwe-Kalu A. (2016), “Effects of exchange rate volatility on commercial property returns in Nigeria”, African Journal of Accounting, Economics, Finance and Banking Research, vol. 10 no. 10.
Frenkel, R., (2004), “Real Exchange Rate and Employment in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, vol. 19, no. 223: 29-52.
Frenkel, R., Ros, J., (2006), “Unemployment and the real exchange rate in Latin America”, World Development, vol. 34, no. 4: 631– 646.
Gala, P., Lucinda, C. R., (2006), “Exchange rate misalignment and growth: old and new econometric evidence”, Revista Economia, vol. 7, no 4: 165-187.
Goldberg L., Tracy, J., (1999), “Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets”, Staff Reports 63, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Kandil, M., Mirzaie, I., (2003), “The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence”. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 43, no. 1: 89–117
Karaki, M. B., (2018), “Oil Prices and State Unemployment”, The Energy Journal, vol. 39, no. 3: 25-49.
Koren, M., (2001), “Employment Response to Real Exchange Rate Movements: Evidence from Hungarian Exporting Firms”, Hungarian Statistical Review, vol. 79: 24–44.
Krugman. P., Taylor, L. (1978), “Contractionary Effects of Devaluation”, Journal of International Economics, vol. 8: 445-456.
Leeper, E., Sims, CH.,  Zha, T., (1996). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 27, NO. 2: 1-78.
Lipscomb, J. B., Hunt, H., Harvey, J. T., (2003). “Exchange Rate Risk Mitigation with Price Level Adjusting Mortgages: The Case of the Mexican UDI”, Journal of Real Estate Research, vol. 25, no. 1.
Milas, C.,  Legrenzi, G., (2006), “Non-linear real exchange rate effects in the UK labor market”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, vol. 10, no. 1: 1–34.
Neghad, M. K., Hosseini, R., (2017), “Effects of Oil Shocks on the Unemployment: GVAR Approach”, Romanian Economic Journal, vol. 20, no. 65: 50-69.
Ordonez, J., Sala, H., Silva, J. I., (2011). “Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations”, The Energy Journal, vol. 32, no 3: 89-118.
Stock, J., Watson, M., “New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual (4), Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 1989.
Yang, L., Zhiqiang HU., (2012). “on Correlation between RMB Exchange Rate and Real State Price based on Financial Enginieering”, Systems Engineering Procedia, vol. 3: 146 – 152.