In Comparison with Newly-Industrialized Economies

Document Type : a

Authors

Abstract

Since structural change, along with traditional factors determining the growth such as labor force, capital and technology, is known in theory and practice as one of the potential factors in growth due to providing the possibility of full and optimal utilization of resources, knowing the its properties in an economy can present a clear picture of possible economic growth. This is true especially when this knowledge is gained and used as a comparative criterion in comparison with indices of structural change in exemplary economies.
This paper assesses the long-term trend of structural change in Iran’s economy achieved by Hodrick-Prescot Filtering, in comparison with corresponding variables in newly-industrialized countries. For this purpose, the status of structural variables in the period before the first oil price rise (years before 1973), the oil period (1973 to 1977), the revolution and war period (1978 to 1988), renovation period (1989 to 1998) and the period of implementation of the 3rd Development Plan (1999 to 2004) are analyzed. The results indicate that all structural variables in Iran’s economy had a trend similar to newly-industrialized countries in the period before the rise of oil price. However, due to numerous economic and political shocks, inappropriate changes occurred in the variables in the oil, revolution and war periods. Though some indices have been relatively improved in the periods of renovation and the implementation of the 3rd Development Plan, the variables still remain in an unsuitable condition in comparison with their level and trend in 1960s and the first half of 1970s and also in comparison with the trend of corresponding variables in the newly-industrialized countries.


 

Keywords

References

بانک مرکزی، بانک اطلاعات سری‌های زمانی اقتصادی.
 
دفتر مطالعات اقتصادی مرکز پژوهش‌‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی (1385). اندازه‌‌گیری و تحلیل روند بهره‌‌وری عوامل تولید در بخش‌‌های اقتصادی ایران.
 
کوزنتس، س. (1966/ 1372). رشد نوین اقتصادی، ترجمۀ قره‌باغیان، تهران: مؤسسۀ خدمات فرهنگی رسا.
 
مرکز آمار ایران، سال‌نامۀ آماری، سال‌‌های مختلف.
 
مشیری، سعید و ابراهیم التجائی (1387). «اثر تغییرات ساختاری بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای تازه‌صنعتی‌شده»، فصل‌نامۀ پژوهش‌‌های اقتصادی ایران، ش 36.
 
معاونت امور اقتصادی وزارت امور اقتصادی و دارایی (1376). گردآوری و تنظیم آمارهای اقتصادی: 1374-1338.
 
Abramovitz, M. (1986). “Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind”, in: The Economics of Structural Change, eds. H. Hagemann, M. Landesmann and R. Scazzieri, Vol. 3, Edward Elgar, 2003. [Appears as Chapter 6 of this volume]
 
Aiginger, K. (2001). “Speed of Change and Growth of Manufacturing”, in: The Structural Change and Economic Growth, M. Peneder et al, WIFO, Study Commissioned by Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Labour, Vienna, Austria. [Appears as Chapter 4 of this Study]
 
Branson, W. H.; Guerrero, I.; and Gunter, B. G. (1998). Patterns of Development, 1970-1994, World Bank working Paper.
 
Chenery, H. B. (1979). Structural Change and Development, The World Bank, Oxford University Press.
 
Chenery, H. B. and Srinivasan, T. N. (1988). Handbook of Development Economics, Vol. 1, Netherlands: Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.
 
Chenery, H. B. and Syrquin, M. (1975). Patterns of Development (1970-1975), The World Bank, Oxford University Press.
 
Chenery, H. B. and Syrquin, M. (1986). Typical Patterns of Transformation, New York: Oxford University Press.
 
Chenery, H. B., and Taylor, L. (1968). “Development Patterns: Among Countries and Over Time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. L, No. 4.
 
Eatwell, J.; Milgate, M. and Newman P. (1987). The New Palgrave: A New Dictionary of Economics, Four Volumes.
 
Echevarria, C. (1997). “Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth”, International Economic Review, Vol. 38, No. 2.
 
Hirschman, A. O. (1958). The Strategy of Economic Development, New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.
 
Hoffmann, W. G. (1931, 1958). “The Pattern of Industrial Growth”, in: The Economics of Structural Change, eds. H. Hagemann, M. Landesmann and R. Scazzieri, Vol. 3, Edward Elgar, 2003. [Appears as Chapter 1 of this volume].
 
Kuznets, S. (1954). On Comparative Study of Economic Structure and Growth of Nation, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
 
Kuznets, S. (1962). “Quantitative Aspects of the Economic Growth of Nations, IV: The Share and Structure of Consumption”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 10, No. 2.
 
Laitner, J. (2000). “Structural Change and Economic Growth”, Review of Economic Studies, 67.
 
Lewis W. A. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor, The Manchester School.
 
Nelson, P. R. and Pack, H. (1999). “The Asian Miracle and Modern Growth Theory”, The Economic Journal, 109.
 
Pasinetti, L. L. (1981). Structural Change and Economic Growth, A Theoretical Essay on the Dynamics of the Wealth of Nation, Cambridge University Press.
 
Peneder, M. (2003). “Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 14.
 
Ricardo, D. (1817). “On Rent”, in: The Economics of Structural Change, eds. H. Hagemann, M. Landesmann and R. Scazzieri, Vol. 1, Edward Elgar, 2003. [Appears as Chapter 11 of this volume]
 
Rostow, W. W. (1960). the Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
 
Smith, A. (1776). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, ElecBook Classics.
 
Svennilson, I. (1954). “The Process of Economic Growth”, in: The Economics of Structural Change, eds. H. Hagemann, M. Landesmann and R. Scazzieri, Vol. 3, Edward Elgar, 2003. [Appears as Chapter 4 of this volume]
 
Syrquin, M. (1986). “Growth and Structural Change in Latin America since 1960: A Comparative Analysis”, Economic Development and Cultural change, Vol. 34, No. 3.
 
Temin, P. (1967). “A Time-Series Test of Patterns of Industrial Growth”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 174: 82.
Journal of Iranian Economic Issues
Volume 2, Issue 1
September 2015
Pages 149-196

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 15 May 2015
  • Revise Date: 02 July 2015
  • Accept Date: 08 August 2015

Share

How to cite

Statistics