Journal of Iranian Economic Issues

Journal of Iranian Economic Issues

Exchange Rate Instability and Import Tax Revenues: Evidence of the Iranian Economy

Document Type : Scientific-research

Authors
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
10.30465/ce.2026.54492.2097
Abstract
Tax on imports is one of the most important sources of government revenue that pursues several goals, including generating revenue for the government, controlling the flow of goods etc. Given the importance of this type of tax for the Iranian economy and its impact on exchange rate uncertainty, the main objective of the present study is to investigate the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the amount of tax absorption on imports in the Iranian economy during the period 1992-2024. For this purpose, a fuzzy regression approach has been used, which has a good ability in uncertain conditions and modeling relationships between variables that are ambiguous and uncertain. The findings showed that exchange rate uncertainty with a fuzzy coefficient of (-0.3247 , 0.0041) is a destructive and unpredictable factor on the absorption of tax revenues on imports in the Iranian economy. In order to reduce the destructive effects of exchange rate uncertainty on import tax revenues, it is suggested that the government, by adopting predictable and stabilizing exchange rate policies, prevent the reduction of customs revenues while maintaining traders’ motivation.
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  • Receive Date 29 April 2026
  • Revise Date 14 July 2026
  • Accept Date 16 August 2026