1
Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Theoretical Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran
2
M.A. in Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran
10.30465/ce.2026.54025.2088
Abstract
One of the challenges of the Iranian economy in recent decades has been macroeconomic instability, which can be attributed to factors such as inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, housing price increases and budget deficits. This study examines the response of Iran’s gold market to macroeconomic instability over 2017–2023. Macroeconomic instability is proxied by a composite monthly index constructed from volatility in inflation, the free-market exchange rate, housing prices, and the Tehran Stock Exchange index. After normalizing the volatility components, the empirical relationship is estimated using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The results indicate a statistically significant negative association between the macroeconomic instability index and the domestic gold price in the estimated specification, while housing-price growth, stock-market growth, and exchange-rate growth are positively associated with the gold price. The error-correction coefficient is negative and significant, showing that deviations from the long-run path are corrected gradually. Because the negative coefficient of the instability index is not fully consistent with the conventional safe-haven view of gold, the discussion interprets the finding cautiously in light of Iran-specific asset substitution, market restrictions, and the composition of the instability index during the sample period.
Abdi Seyyedkolaee, M., Rezagholizadeh, M. & Rayatniya Shahroudi, E. (2025). Response of Iran's Gold Market to Macroeconomic Instability. (e14257). Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, 12(24), e14257 https://doi.org/10.30465/ce.2026.54025.2088
MLA
Abdi Seyyedkolaee, M., Rezagholizadeh, M., & Rayatniya Shahroudi, E. "Response of Iran's Gold Market to Macroeconomic Instability" .e14257 , Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, 12, 24, 2025, e14257. doi: 10.30465/ce.2026.54025.2088
HARVARD
Abdi Seyyedkolaee M., Rezagholizadeh M., Rayatniya Shahroudi E. (2025). 'Response of Iran's Gold Market to Macroeconomic Instability', Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, 12(24), e14257. doi: 10.30465/ce.2026.54025.2088
CHICAGO
M. Abdi Seyyedkolaee, M. Rezagholizadeh & E. Rayatniya Shahroudi, "Response of Iran's Gold Market to Macroeconomic Instability," Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, 12 24 (2025): e14257, doi: 10.30465/ce.2026.54025.2088
VANCOUVER
Abdi Seyyedkolaee M., Rezagholizadeh M., Rayatniya Shahroudi E. Response of Iran's Gold Market to Macroeconomic Instability. Journal of Iranian Economic Issues. 2025;12(24):e14257 (In Persian). doi: 10.30465/ce.2026.54025.2088