Document Type : Scientific-research
Authors
1
PhD student, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, iran.
2
Associate Professor, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
10.30465/ce.2026.51611.2029
Abstract
Economic sanctions have always been a powerful tool for exerting political and economic pressure on a country, with the primary goal of causing economic disruption. Sanctions, alongside economic risk and uncertainty, can severely affect and endanger the economic security of the target country. In this regard, the present study, using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) approach, seeks to answer the question of how macroeconomic uncertainty, alongside economic sanctions, has affected Iran's economic security during the years 1990-2021. The macroeconomic uncertainty index is estimated from seven groups of the most important macroeconomic variables, and economic sanctions are a quantified index estimated using fuzzy logic. The results of the study indicate that macroeconomic uncertainty, economic sanctions, political risk, and population growth rate have a significant negative impact on economic security and lead to its reduction. Furthermore, human capital and the degree of trade openness have a significant positive effect on the economic security index and lead to its increase over time. Additionally, macroeconomic uncertainty reduces economic security by 1.29 units, and economic sanctions reduce it by 0.53 units.
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