Investigating the effect of oil price on industrial production in Iran: a quantile regression approach based on wavelet transformation

Mir Hosseini, Fatemeh; Fatahi, Shahram; Almasi, Mojtaba

doi:10.30465/ce.2025.48572.1963

Investigating the effect of oil price on industrial production in Iran: a quantile regression approach based on wavelet transformation

Document Type : Scientific-research

Authors

Fatemeh Mir Hosseini ¹

shahram fatahi ²

Mojtaba Almasi ²

¹ Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Science, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

² Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

10.30465/ce.2025.48572.1963

Abstract

Today, with the development of economic and social life, human needs and requirements have diversified. Industrial production and the evolution and growth of industry can meet the needs and expectations of man and make his life comfortable and comfortable. One of the main factors of growth and development in the international arena is industrial production. There are several factors that affect the value of industrial production, including the impact of investment, technology and changes in energy prices. Oil, as a form of energy, is an essential raw material for industrial production. The price of petroleum products is so important in industrial production that production costs are directly affected by the price of oil. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of crude oil prices on the industrial production index. For this purpose, quarterly data for the period 2003-2020 for Iran have been used using wavelet-based quantitative regression. According to the results of this study, in estimating the model using quantile regression method based on wavelet transform, the effect of OPEC oil price on Iran's industrial production index is positive and significant in the first, second and sixth quantiles.

Keywords

Energy

Crude Oil Price

Industrial Production

Quantile Regression

Wavelet Transform

Subjects