Test of the effect of Harberger-Laursen-Metzler & effect of Abstfeld- Svensson-Razin on Iran's trade balance with major trading partners with the Panel ARDL

Ansarinasab, Moslem; Zeynali, Esmat

doi:10.30465/ce.2025.50670.2004

Test of the effect of Harberger-Laursen-Metzler & effect of Abstfeld- Svensson-Razin on Iran's trade balance with major trading partners with the Panel ARDL

Document Type : Scientific-research

Authors

moslem ansarinasab ¹

esmat zeynali ²

¹ vali-e-asr

² vali asr

10.30465/ce.2025.50670.2004

Abstract

One of the main sources of trade balance fluctuations in small open economies is the terms of trade. The terms of trade play an important role in determining variables such as the trade balance. According to the significance of subject, the present study aims to investigate the effect of terms of trade on Iran's trade balance with major trading partners. To achieve the research objectives, the Panel ARDL model has been used in the bilateral relations of Iran's economy with the economies of China, UAE, Turkey, India, Germany, Switzerland, South Korea, Italy, France, Singapore, Brazil, Japan, Spain, Malaysia and Pakistan. The results of model estimation using Panel ARDL show that the effect of the Iranian terms of trade on the trade balance is equal to 0/073983 in the short term and 0/0028078 in the long term, both of which are significant. in other words, improving Iran's terms of trade in the short term and long terms improves the bilateral trade balance, and the HLM effect in the short term and effect of Abstfeld- Svensson and Razin in the long term is maintained.

Keywords

Terms of trade

Trade balance

Trading Partners

Iranian Economy

Panel ARDL

Subjects