عملکرد سیستم مالی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران: برخی واقعیت‏های سبک‏ وار

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار اقتصاد، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی

2 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری دانشگاه یزد

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

ادبیات اقتصاد کلان-مالی در پاسخ به این سؤال که آیا رشد اقتصادی متعاقبِ توسعه‏ ی مالی افزایش می‏یابد و یا ابتدا باید رشد اقتصادی رخ دهد تا اقتصاد از مزایای توسعه مالی بهره‏مند شود، به آزمون رابطه دوسویه‏ و بعضاً غیرخطی تأکید دارد. در این پژوهش، پیوند میان شاخص ‏های فراگیر توسعه مالی (در ابعادِ عمق، جریان بین‏ المللی، دسترسی، کارآیی و ثبات) با رژیم‏ هایِ رشد اقتصادی کل و بخشی (کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات) که از مارکوف-سوئیچینگ استخراج شدند، طی دولت‏های سوم تا یازدهم بعد از انقلاب (2017-1982) بررسی می‏ شود. شواهد گویای آن است که ابعاد مختلف توسعه مالی با رژیم‏ های رشد بخش واقعی هم‏روند هستند (به استثنای دولت‏های نهم و دهم)؛ یعنی واقعیت‏ هایی سبک ‏وار در حمایت از فرضیه رهبری عرضه خدمات مالی وجود دارد. همچنین، بیش از 60 تبصره (در برنامه‏ های اول و دوم توسعه) و ماده (در برنامه‏ های سوم، چهارم و پنجم) به سیستم مالی مربوط می‏ شدند که بدون استراتژی منسجم و حول سرکوب‏های مالی و تبعیض‏ های بخشی وضع شده بودند و در نتیجه، به تحقق «توسعه مالی متوازن» کمکی نکردند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Financial System Performance and Economic Growth in Iran: Some Stylized Facts

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Ali Aboutorabi 1
  • Mehdi Hajamini 2
  • Sahar Tohidi 3
1 Assistant Researcher in Economics, Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies
2 Yazd University
3 M.A. Student of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University
چکیده [English]

To reply to the question of whether financial development leads to economic growth or financial development benefits come from economic growth, macro-financial economics literature suggests testing a two-way and even non-linearity relationship. In this paper, by applying markov-switching approach, we investigate the two-way linkage between universal financial development indicators (in aspects of depth, international flows, access, efficiency, and stability) and total and sectoral (agriculture, industry, and services) growth in 3rd to 11th cabinet after the revolution (1982-2017). Evidence reveals that there are co-movements between different aspects of financial development and real sector growth regimes (except 9th and 10th cabinets); such that, ome stylized facts are supporting the financial services supply-leading hypothesis. Moreover, there are more than 60 notes (in 1st and 2nd development programs) and articles (in 3rd, 4th and 5th development programs) related to the financial system, which are made without a comprehensive strategy and are based on financial repressions and sectoral discriminations; therefore, they did not contribute to "balanced financial development".
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial Development
  • Financial Institutions
  • Financial Markets
  • Insurance
  • Economic Growth JEL Classification: G00
  • G20
  • G22
  • O40

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 11 خرداد 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 08 مرداد 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 شهریور 1399

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